大数据能否拯救赛马业？

2014年5月3日, 第140届德比赛马(Kentucky Derby)在肯塔基隆重举行。二十匹3岁大的纯种马完成了1.25英里号称“运动场上最伟大的两分钟”的冲刺。

对于普通赛马迷，德比赛事很可能是他们每年为数不多的现场观看的赛事之一；而对于身处赛马国度的人们，这可是非常难得的一次机会，能让他们站出来炫耀属于自己独特文化的一部分。

尽管赛马迷们目前都在争论赛马这项运动是否会消亡，但有一点大家都很认同，那就是赛马在20世纪中期时的繁盛程度，是现如今无法匹敌的。

与此同时，在过去的10年里，美国的赌马率也下降了30％，这些数字似乎都预示着什么。

数据及数据分析正在改变这一产业

不过，当今还是有许多人重新对赛马业产生了兴趣，这至少得部分归功于大数据。为什么这么说呢？就以德比赛事为例，它就给我们展示了一个急速发展的大数据如何改变赛马业。

具体来讲，赛马这项运动与其他运动有一个显著不同，那就是它能在一两分钟内呈现令人意想不到的结果，并且该运动本身就与数据息息相关。

过去几年涌现出的诸多产品、服务以及技术，都在产生新的、或更好的数据，甚至新的工具，来帮助赛马结果预测人员和赌者下赌注。譬如像赛马王国（Horse Racing Nation）和Thoro-Graph这样的网站，它们通过数据并运用分析工具，帮助赛马结果预测人员做出更准确的预测从而赢钱。

即使是克里托马斯(Kerry Thomas) 那样专门分析马的行为学的专业人员也开始逐步采纳大数据方法。

此外，还有一种叫做Trakus的设备，这个设备安装在马鞍上，能实时定位并测量速度，然后将数据传输到动画设备，从而产生更好的即时回放等。更有意思的是，它能帮助分析像骑马师的骑马坐姿这样深层次的数据。

残疾工具的使用也不是什么新玩意了。还有值得一提的是，安德鲁拜耳在1970年代设计了一种能用来衡量赛马水平高低的数值，称作“拜耳速值”（Beyer Speed Figures），这个数值就是基于赛程完成的时间长短和不同赛道内在的速度而计算出来的一个复杂的统计分析结果。

当然，有大数据并不一定保证将来成功，正如谷歌利用搜索数据预测感冒的FluTrends,因为预测结果的不精确而造人诟病一样。

打造赛马业的高新技术生态系统

那么，大数据究竟可以拯救赛马业免于消亡吗？

随着搜集庞大的数据集并将它们转化为有用的信息包的技术的日趋成熟，赛马业似乎也能通过充分利用这些技术服务来创造巨大财富，不过更重要的是，赛马业本身也将会经历伟大的变化。

赛马业的生命力，如同任何其他运动行业一样，是由简单的运动本身决定的；然而，在运动基础上构建一个由科技驱动的生态系统，显然给赛马业的赌注部分增加了更多的便利性和趣味性。

不管怎样，2014年的赛马赛事非常成功。

原文：

On Saturday, May 3, the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby tookplace.

Twenty 3-year-old Thoroughbreds took a 1.25-mile sprint in whatis commonly referred to as “The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports.”

For casual horse-racing fans, the Derby is likely one of only acouple times each year to tune in and physically watch a race.

For those of us located in the middle of horse-racing country,it is a rare excuse to show up and show off a unique piece of our culture.

Though the industry currently is hosting a debate over thecommonly accepted notion that horse racing is a dying sport, no one can contestthat horse racing is as relevant as it was in the mid-20th century.

Wagering is down 30 percent over the past decade in the UnitedStates as well, so the numbers don’t look good.

Data, analytics arechanging the industry

However, there are many who see renewed interest in horseracing, at least partially as a result of big data.

The Derby provides a great opportunity to examine how therapidly changing world of big data and analytics is changing the horse-racingindustry.

While a useful exercise in almost any field, horse racing is particularlyinteresting because of the inherent drama of a result in two minutes or less —and the naturally data-rich nature of the sport.

The past few years have revealed a number of products, servicesand technologies that aim to provide new data, better data or new tools to thetraditional bag of tricks for handicappers and bettors.

Websites such as Horse Racing Nation and Thoro-Graph smash dataand some analysis tools together, behind a pay wall in most cases, to givehandicappers a leg up on the competition.

Even horse behavioral analysts such as Kerry Thomasare beginning to make their way into the picture.

In addition, Trakus is an innovative piece of hardware thatslips into the saddle of horses on a number of tracks, communicating real-timepositioning and speed data to animations of the races aimed at enhancing theproduction of races (instant replays, etc.).

But it also has a strong value proposition for analyzing deeperdata on how well the jockey designed his or her ride.

Handicapping tools are also not a brand new phenomenon, either.

The Beyer Speed Figures, first introduced to the racing publicvia the Daily Racing Form in 1992, are an advanced statistical analysis ofhorses, based on the final time and the inherent speed over the track on whichthe race was run.

However, just because you have big data doesn’t guaranteesuccess in predicting the future. Not even close.

Recently, Google Inc.’s much-vaunted Flu Trends — which usesaggregated Google search data to estimate flu activity — has taken flack forinaccuracies and a lack of overall scientific validation.

And many people still swear by “small data,” such as theexperience of legendary oddsmakers such as Mike Battagliaand use his favorites to influence their bets.

Building atechnology-driven ecosystem

So, can big data save horse racing?

As the technologies and tools for taking huge data sets andturning them into sensible and useful information packets continues to improve,it seems natural for horse racing to embrace new services and products designednot just to create great fortunes but also great experiences.

The viability of horse racing, like any sport, is determined bythe drama on the surface of play, but building a technology-driven ecosystemaround the sport certainly adds convenience and interest around horse racing’sprovocative gaming component.

In any case, here’s to agreat 2014Run for the Roses.